UK could lose £400 billion as result of 'hard Brexit', study suggests

17 Oct 2017

A ‘hard Brexit’ could cost the UK up to £400 billion by 2030, a study carried out by Rabobank has suggested.

18% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth could be lost by 2030 if the UK leaves the EU without a trade agreement. The study also suggested that British residents could be out of pocket to the tune of £11,500 as a result of a hard Brexit.

The bank analysed the consequences of three separate Brexit scenarios, including where Britain leaves the EU with a trade agreement, where it leaves without a trade agreement and where it obtains a so-called ‘soft Brexit’ and leaves the Single Market, but not the customs union.

If the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal in 2019, Britain could enter a two-year recession, and GDP would fall to 2.4%, Rabobank suggested.  

However, a recession would be inevitable. If Britain leaves with an agreement, or experiences a soft Brexit, then a ‘milder and much more short-lived’ recession would take place.

Hugo Erken, Senior Economist at Rabobank, commented: ‘By looking at dynamics such as innovation, competition, knowledge and human capital, how they will change and what effects this will have on the structural makeup of the UK and European economy, our research shows that the long-lasting impact of Brexit is likely to be more severe than initially anticipated.’